2025 is off to a robust beginning, generating high-end sales that rival the most premium transactions over the last several years. January is typically the low point in any given year, as most transactions originated in the preceding 30–60 days fall within the depths of the shoulder season. However, January 2025 generated 70 residential transactions, slightly outperforming 2024 and meaningfully outpacing 2023. Still, this quantity remains about 25% below the historic average, carrying forward the trend that has defined the last several years. Whether buying or selling, strategic timing can make all the difference in today’s market, and the strong start to 2025 signals key opportunities for those ready to act.
Atypical of recent years is the composition of these transactions. With an average price above $2.1M, January experienced a flurry of premium transactions that included two Tahoe lakefronts priced at $6,200,000 and $27,500,000 matched by a pair of Martis Camp transactions for $7,185,000 and $11,320,000. Two thirds of all sales in January closed for prices greater than $1,000,000 while a quarter exceeded $2,000,000.
This run of premium sales dates back to the waning days of 2024 after a prolonged period of little activity at the market’s highest reaches.

Over the last decade, the Tahoe Truckee region has averaged ten eight-figure transactions per year, rendering the $10,000,000 rarified air. After the frenzied period from 2020 – 2022, just one sale achieved this threshold from October 2023 through August 2024. In just the last 90 days, seven such transactions have closed including the extraordinary West Shore estate for just under $30,000,000 and the most expensive-ever property with a Truckee address for $23,600,000 in Martis Camp.

Elite consumers are clearly sensing a moment to capitalize on the opportunity in the Tahoe market after waiting on the sidelines for the last several years. Undeniably, these consumers are less impacted by persistently high interest rates, which continue to constrain affordability for the broader market.
January also represents the seasonal ebb of available inventory. With approximately 300 active listings, absorption is holding at about 4 months of supply, consistent with the last several years. Those sellers currently defying conventional reasoning are being richly rewarded with peak pricing. Among these are numerous properties that were unsuccessful in during peak season in 2024; only to find an entirely different landscape amid limited competition just a few months later.

The remaining field of listings paused from 2024 are likely to return to market after ski season, crowding the market alongside the wave of 2025 sellers. This phenomenon, combined with election-paralysis, stymied the local market during the busier summer season. Perhaps counterintuitively, mild winter weather has enabled easier conditions for real estate creating some positive momentum.
For purchasers, the opportunity exists in the form of optimizing precious experiences in nature; a commodity made perishable by time. For sellers, recognizing a moment to optimize conditions rewards the most savvy.
As 2025 progresses, we’ll continue to share insights on the evolving market landscape.