Q3 has provided revealing data as to the trajectory of Tahoe Truckee real estate. Activity has tapered, and values have settled somewhat however supply remains modest because a very high percentage of homeowners are enjoying the use of their Tahoe properties. Thus, only those having purchased in the last year are at risk of being upside down. This is relative to the basis and the general lack of distress in relation to mortgage burdens, which remain almost nil.
As is always the case, blanket generalizations never tell a complete story as specific micro-markets continue to appreciate while others settle into late 2021 valuations. Similarly, not all metrics are moving in unison. For example, the average price peaked during Q1 2022 riding high on several premium sales including 10 eight-figure sales between Martis Camp and Tahoe lakefront. Median price continued to surge for one more quarter as median price rose to an all-time peak at $1,200,000 in Q2, despite activity in the elite tier cooling. This reveals a large volume of properties transacting within the middle tier of the local market as inventory began to loosen for the first time in several years.
Correspondingly, the increase in inventory has resulted in an uptick in the total number of transactions in each successive quarter this year.
In total, Q3 values precisely match the results from Q4, 2021 meaning any regression in pricing is giving back the gains from early this year when conditions were at the apex of competition with plentiful consumers fighting over historically scarce inventory
Inventory peaked in August at just over 3 months’ supply; a rate of absorption that favors the seller despite being a quadrupling of supply from the beginning of the year.