North Lake Tahoe experienced the busiest 3rd quarter ever with an astonishing 554 properties trading and nearly $500M in total sales volume. Given the area activity Q3, 2017 at Schaffer’s Mill was a bit underwhelming. With only 5 properties trading the Median Sales Price of $1.255M was off 11% from two years prior. The types of properties trading is interesting: just 1 single family home trading despite a sufficient supply of single family homes.

The Mountain Lodge, a property type not available at Martis Camp or Lahontan, set the pace with 4 residences trading on average for $1.194M. 2016 saw 29% more properties trading and 2015 a whopping 44%.

Earlier in 2017 the Marlin Atlantis Development team released the newest phase of homesites: The Summit. This enclave of 19 parcels along the back nine 12th hole represents some of the most premium sites in the community. Reservations were taken early in the year until clients could go to contract. 12 sites have since sold, an impressive feat considering prices cresting $640K.

A noticeable infusion of younger families is bringing the average age of community members down. Many of these folks, not satisfied with the inventory, are opting to secure land and begin the design/build process.

Despite an off Q3, 2017 YTD SM sales prices were right where historic averages suggest. Over the past three years Schaffer’s Mill has experienced a steady Median Sales Price, hovering around the $1.37M mark. Considering the total units trading is the lowest amount YTD perhaps the community is showing its tolerance for certain price points.

 

SM-2017-Q3

 

Another explanation could be the available inventory. Of the core golf course communities in North Lake Tahoe: Martis Camp, Lahontan, SM, Gray’s Crossing, and Old Greenwood; SM homes experience the highest Days On Market. On average SM homes come on the market and sit for longer than any other community in the area. One explanation is the overpricing of homes, evidenced by the 5% delta from Asking Price to Sold Price.

 

SM-2017-Q3-2

 

By no means has SM become a stagnant community. Phase 1 Mountain Lodges are trading at healthy levels. Many of these owners are upgrading to custom homes, while the older demographic are aging out.

Several Phase 2 Mountain Lodges have begun entering the marketplace. These owners have a higher cost basis having purchased after the initial amenities were introduced. Compared to those Phase 1 purchases in 2012/13 for an average of $874K, appreciation is not nearly as significant. Those that purchased for +$1.5M in 2015 & 2016 bought at the highest price point and have a more limited cap rate.

After a banner year like 2016 a statistical dip was only normal. To no surprise, though as homesite sales at Schaffer’s Mill remained robust. At this stage of the community’s development there was an expectation for more impressive single family home statistics. With a few exciting spec builds underway and the 2014 HGTV Dream entering the market place activity should pick up in Q4, 2017 and Q1, 2018. With the anticipation for winter and fall selling season winding down look for a few aggressive price drops to kick start more single family home activity.

Tune in at year end for a comprehensive year in review.

Visit our Q3 2017 landing page for market updates on all of our core communities.